Polling has emerged for the Greater Manchester mayor race, and it shows that Labour is starting the by-election in poll position:
Greater Manchester Mayor First Preference Voting Intention:
LAB: 33.2% (-30.2)
REF: 30.1% (+22.6)
GRN: 12.3% (+5.4)
CON: 11.1% (+0.7)
LDEM: 7.6% (+2.5)
From FocusData / Hope Not Hate
From 22nd May – 5th June
Changes with 2024 Mayoral Election— PolliticsUK (@PolliticsUK) June 25, 2026
All to play for
The reason we’re having a Greater Manchester mayor by-election is because the old mayor – Andy Burnham – just became the MP for Makerfield. The reason he did that is because he wants to replace our incredibly unpopular PM Keir Starmer – something he will imminently achieve.
Labour’s lead isn’t the only key takeaway from the above. Other things to bear in mind are:
- The poll was conducted between 22 May and 5 June – weeks before Burnham won in Makerfield. Given the thrashing Burnham gave Reform in Makerfield, people have been expecting a ‘Burnham bounce’ in the polls. So far, however, such a bump has failed to materialise:
Con: 22% ( +1 )
Lab: 21% ( –1 )
Lib: 12% ( –1 )
Labour would be reduced to 107 seats (-304).
Poll: @Moreincommon_, 19-22 June
––
(+/- vs 15 Jun) pic.twitter.com/FBLVMITD2Z— Stats for Lefties
(@LeftieStats) June 24, 2026
- Although the poll was from before Burnham stepped down, people knew that, if there was a race, he wouldn’t be running. This could be why Labour is significantly down on 2024, when Burnham last ran to be the Greater Manchester mayor.
- Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester, but Burnham isn’t running. Perhaps having Burnham as PM will be enough to convince Greater Manchester voters to keep the faith, but perhaps not.
The Burnham Bounce!
Only down 30%.
Further and faster….as someone once said. I forget who. https://t.co/WDiLc24Ujh
— Greg Hadfield (@GregHadfield) June 25, 2026
- Reform has tended to underperform in important by-elections.
- The Greens are trailing, but they were trailing at the start of the Gorton & Denton by-election too. If they can take what they did there and amplify it across Greater Manchester, they will not be finishing on 12% of the vote.
The Greens are optimistic about their chances anyway:
NB: This poll was taken before Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election. pic.twitter.com/LtHm2n1v8z
— Green Elects (@GrnElects) June 25, 2026
If polling like the above persists, they will have to switch up their messaging, though:
"We know that this is going to be an election between the Green Party and Reform. And I am standing to make sure that at the end of July, we are looking at our first ever Green Party mayor in Greater Manchester."
Green Party Greater Manchester mayoral candidate Geraldine Coggins… pic.twitter.com/jEByQ6raTe
— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) June 23, 2026
The general messaging is still on point, anyway:
At the @TheGreenParty launch of their campaign for the Greater Manchester mayoral election, our reporter @cjmbaillie was one of the first to speak to their candidate Geraldine Coggins – and she's immediately showing why she's the right choice to vote for on 30 July
pic.twitter.com/ldMYYJs7Ou
— Canary (@TheCanaryUK) June 20, 2026
The Green-aligned Stats for Lefties account made the following projection:
2nd pref estimate based off "tactical" poll done by YouGov which showed in Lab/Ref contest parties would split as follows:
– Labour –
– Reform –
35% of Greens would vote Green regardless. pic.twitter.com/L9fzrzlDvB
— Stats for Lefties
Labour supporters, meanwhile, are repeating their line from the Caerphilly and Gorton & Denton by-elections (both of which they went on to lose):
Tories, Lib Dems and Greens can’t win in Manchester. If we want to get rid of the fascists, we need to unite behind Labour. Vote Labour. pic.twitter.com/ebUELF8bEa
— Lance Lachlan
(@lancelachlan) June 25, 2026
Manchester will decide
Some British elections pan out exactly how the polling predicts; others veer wildly from the initial expectations. We’re not sure which outcome the Greater Manchester mayor race will see, but we know that the Greens are taking it seriously:
"What we know is that when Greens prioritise a campaign, we know how to win. We did that in Gorton and Denton and we'll be doing that for the Greater Manchester Mayor."
Deputy Leader Rachel Millward on the Greater Manchester Mayoral election. pic.twitter.com/hLhRrP1gqh
— The Green Party (@TheGreenParty) June 19, 2026
We also know that Burnham is giving every indication his government will be Starmerism 2.0. And if that is the case, we suspect the good people of Manchester will look back in anger.
Featured image via the Canary
By Willem Moore
