Polling is consistently showing that Reform is losing its lead



Nigel Farage, a downward facing arrow, Rob Kenyon of Reform UK, and Andy Burnham

Keir Starmer has resigned, and Andy Burnham is set to replace him. As we’ve reported previously, this has not led to a sudden reversal of Labour’s fortunes. As time goes on, however, we are starting to see Reform losing its lead:

Is this all down to Burnham?

Or is Reform doing just as much to damage its own brand as Labour is?

Reform’s fading fortunes

When Burnham returned to parliament, the Labour Party behaved like they’d won a brand new majority:

The initial polling showed no positive change, with YouGov putting Reform at 25% (+1) and Labour at 18% (-). Other polls, though, have mostly shown that Reform is on the slide, even if Labour isn’t always on the up:

Individual polls can’t be read as gospel, but they can give us an idea of what direction things are trending in. If multiple pollsters show that Reform is losing support, then it likely is – especially if this repeats over successive weeks and months.

So what’s causing this?

The ‘Burnham Bounce’ could be a factor, although we still have little idea of what the man has planned. Other factors include:

  • Rumours that Farage may actually have to step down because of all this (or even go to prison).

There’s also Reform’s many other day-to-day scandals, including this:

It will get worse

Reform UK is facing challenges from all sides, and we expect things to get worse before the next general election. If Farage has to step down, the problems will magnify, because – let’s face it – the party has always been the Nigel Farage Show.

All good shows come to an end, and this one was never very good in the first place.

Featured image via the Canary

By Willem Moore





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